Asian Polymer Markets Balance Between Weak Demand, Festive Hopes, and Rising Supply Pressure

The Asian polyethylene and polypropylene markets remained subdued this week, with prices either holding steady or easing across most segments. Market sentiment was cautious, shaped by geopolitical headlines, seasonal shifts, and regional supply developments. Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, reportedly pushed by a US-led diplomatic effort, sparked hopes of lower crude oil prices, but this failed to significantly boost downstream activity.

In HDPE, prices stabilized across the region. China’s market stayed flat, supported by maintenance shutdowns and resilient US dollar trade, yet capped by sluggish demand and weak cost support. Imports are expected to rise in September and October on the back of seasonal demand and additional US cargoes, though new capacity in Vietnam, Malaysia, and China is expected to restrict any price lift. Southeast Asia saw minor declines as US-origin offers gained traction, while domestic producers in Indonesia kept prices competitive to defend market share. India’s HDPE market was muted as a weaker rupee raised import costs and monsoon conditions slowed demand, although festive-season restocking in late August may offer some support. In Pakistan, newly implemented e-invoicing and audit rules curbed purchases, with converters delaying major buying decisions until clarity improves. Nevertheless, demand is projected to rise in September once monsoon conditions ease. Sri Lanka and Bangladesh maintained stability, with buyers largely waiting for fresh import offers.

LDPE prices held steady in much of Asia but fell in South Asia amid softer demand. In China, local price increases prompted overseas suppliers to lift offers, though buyers stayed on the sidelines, anticipating better deals. Southeast Asia remained broadly stable but leaned weaker as competitive offers and upcoming new plant start-ups limited optimism. India faced higher import costs due to currency depreciation, while weak downstream demand kept buyers cautious. Pakistan mirrored the HDPE trend, with regulatory changes suppressing purchases, although seasonal and agricultural demand may provide support in September. Sri Lanka and Bangladesh stayed soft, weighed by abundant local supply and weak restocking interest.

LLDPE markets softened, particularly in China, where higher imports and lacklustre downstream demand weighed on sentiment. Although temporary supply disruptions had earlier supported upstream costs, weak packaging and film demand offset the impact, leaving prices under pressure. Southeast Asia was steady-to-softer, as competition intensified ahead of new capacity from Vietnam and Malaysia. India’s LLDPE weakened further, with rupee depreciation, seasonal monsoon effects, and local discounts redirecting demand away from imports. In Pakistan, e-invoicing rules again dampened appetite, though September demand could improve with better weather.

Polypropylene (PP) extended its downward trend, with Chinese futures-driven weakness spilling into spot markets. While some buyers engaged in opportunistic purchases, overall sentiment was capped by impending new capacity. Southeast Asian PP fell on weak spot demand, while Indonesia’s producers defended share with discounts. In India, PP demand was muted as buyers stayed with cheaper domestic cargoes, keeping imports unappealing. Pakistan echoed regional sluggishness, though September may see improved appetite. Sri Lanka and Bangladesh stayed flat, with most suppliers already done with August allocations.

Polystyrene (PS) remained under strain as Asian demand lagged, forcing suppliers to trim offers. Seasonal restocking has yet to materialize, while oversupply from China continues to pressure regional producers. Although spot demand in Southeast Asia picked up slightly, this was viewed as a short-lived adjustment rather than a real recovery. Weakness in packaging and appliances kept sentiment cautious, with some producers reducing operating rates to manage inventories.

ABS was an outlier, holding steady across Asia. Most August volumes had been sold, and producers have yet to discuss September. Demand was uneven, while upstream styrene softened slightly. Southeast Asia remained lethargic, reflecting the broader regional slowdown.

PVC saw mixed performance. Prices rose in India and Sri Lanka on stronger offers and anti-dumping duty developments, which lifted sentiment despite underlying weak fundamentals. Elsewhere — in China, Southeast Asia, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, prices held flat as demand remained weak and inventories grew. September offers are awaited for clearer direction.

PET markets slipped across Asia, driven by poor demand in packaging and textiles, limited restocking, and weak export inquiries. China and Southeast Asia were oversupplied, with buyers avoiding forward commitments in anticipation of lower prices. Some polyester producers discussed cutting operating rates to ease pressure, but sentiment stayed cautious. While the US–China tariff truce boosted hopes for late-season restocking, the immediate impact remained limited.

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