The Asian Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market experienced a varied trend this week, with prices rising in the Far East while remaining steady across most other regions. Market sentiment was shaped by geopolitical tensions, shifting supply fundamentals, and cautious buying behavior, with offers for September shipments reflecting both optimism and restraint.
In Far East Asia, LLDPE prices moved higher, assessed at USD 860-900/mt CFR levels, representing a week-on-week gain of USD 10/mt. An industry source in Asia noted that Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have intensified supply concerns, although prices have slightly moderated as markets adjust. The Russia–Ukraine conflict continues to drive volatility, and while oversupply is projected in the long term, short-term tightness is supporting elevated prices. Analysts suggest that the strength in prices may sustain inflationary pressure in the near term, although a decline is anticipated in the medium to long term.
China reflected this trend, where a Saudi Arabian producer offered LLDPE film grade at USD 860/mt for September shipment, while an Indian producer quoted USD 870/mt and Middle Eastern producers priced within USD 860-900/mt. Chinese market sentiment was largely buoyant, supported by a stable macroeconomic backdrop and strong cost support. Although some plants resumed operations, overall output remained constrained, keeping supply tight. This limited supply encouraged steady pricing, though cautious buyers refrained from aggressive purchasing. Downstream operating rates began to ease as buyers pushed back against rising costs, while many opted to restock only as required rather than building large inventories. International sellers, particularly from Saudi Arabia and South Korea, raised offers for September shipments, pointing to tighter global supply expectations.
In Southeast Asia, prices held steady at USD 930-970/mt CFR levels. A Middle Eastern producer offered film grade at USD 910/mt CFR for September shipment, while an Indonesian producer quoted USD 950/mt, and offers into Vietnam ranged between USD 910-970/mt from Chinese, South Korean, and Middle Eastern suppliers. Vietnam’s demand has softened, particularly for film grades, following increased output from the Long Son Petrochemical Complex, which boosted domestic supply. This has reduced competitiveness of Middle Eastern shipments due to import duties, lead times, and currency risks. Additional US and Chinese cargo arrivals further pressured the market, while South Korea cut cracker operating rates by 25 percent to mitigate oversupply-driven losses. Sellers remained cautious, with some lowering offers modestly under pressure, while others avoided steep discounts to preserve margins.
In India, LLDPE prices edged slightly higher to USD 920-940/mt CFR, though sentiment remained subdued. Supply was somewhat restricted in the spot market, but buyers largely stayed cautious amid weak macroeconomic conditions, a weakening rupee, and concerns about potential price corrections from global oversupply and incoming US cargoes. Market participants expect seasonal demand to strengthen post-monsoon, particularly from the agriculture and packaging sectors, which may improve trade activity in the coming weeks.
In Pakistan, LLDPE prices were assessed steady at USD 990-1020/mt CFR levels. Traders and suppliers expressed cautious optimism for a September rebound, with demand expected to pick up post-monsoon in agriculture, FMCG, and packaging sectors. Supply conditions improved as a major Saudi supplier resumed offers, alongside steady inflows from Iran and other sources, keeping the market well-balanced. Despite this, buyers remained conservative, delaying large purchases until clearer price signals emerge later in the month.
In Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, LLDPE prices showed limited movement. Sri Lanka’s market was assessed at USD 960-1000/mt CFR, while Bangladesh stood at USD 960-980/mt CFR, both posting marginal gains of USD 10/mt from last week. Market activity remained muted as buyers awaited fresh September offers, with trading volumes thin and sentiment largely cautious. Sellers held back significant concessions, while buyers delayed bulk orders in anticipation of possible corrections.
On the feedstock front, ethylene prices strengthened, assessed at USD 835-845/mt CFR Northeast Asia, up USD 15/mt week on week, and USD 825-835/mt CFR Southeast Asia, up USD 10/mt. The gains added cost support for polyethylene markets, although overall fundamentals remained mixed.
Meanwhile, in plant news, PetroChina Dushanzi Petrochemical is expected to restart its LLDPE unit in Korla, Xinjiang, by late August or early September 2025 following maintenance that began on August 19. The unit has a production capacity of 300,000 mt/year and is anticipated to provide additional supply to the Chinese market once back online.
Overall, the Asian LLDPE market reflected a cautiously optimistic outlook this week. While Far East Asia saw moderate price gains, other regions largely held steady as buyers adopted a wait-and-watch approach amid expectations of fresh supply inflows, seasonal demand shifts, and the ongoing influence of geopolitical and macroeconomic factors.
