US spot ethylene prices fell further last week, extending a downward trend that has persisted through August despite reports of supply disruptions at major olefins facilities. Market sentiment remained bearish as ample availability and weak downstream demand outweighed temporary outages.
A market source told that, “Spot ethylene prices in the U.S. kept declining, even with ongoing discussions about inventory volumes. Market participants were split, with some warning that September supply could tighten, while others cited internal data suggesting that availability remains sufficient. The uncertainty has kept sentiment cautious, but the price trend has stayed strongly negative.”
In the Louisiana pipeline network, trading focus shifted to forward months, with activity stretching into November. A lower-priced offer for September delivery pulled spot values down further, reinforcing the contango structure developing in the US ethylene curve.
On the supply side, Motiva Enterprises reported an emissions event at its Light Olefins Unit, while Equistar Chemicals LP announced an emissions incident at its La Porte plant that led to a shutdown. Initially these incidents raised concerns about availability, but market sources later noted the overall impact was minimal. Some traders expressed surprise that prices continued to fall, suggesting the units may have already restarted and returned supply to the market without significantly affecting contractual obligations.
Downstream, polyethylene exports weakened again, with US PE prices dropping week-on-week as high inventory levels and muted international demand cut into offtake. The softness in PE further eroded ethylene consumption, reinforcing bearish fundamentals. Market participants now expect US ethylene to remain under pressure unless extended or large-scale supply disruptions emerge. Attention has turned to operating rates at olefins units, pipeline trading dynamics, and downstream polyethylene demand as the industry enters the final quarter of the year.
On Friday, spot ethylene was assessed at 20.00–20.50 cents per pound FD US Gulf, down 2.00 cents from the previous week. By contrast, Asia’s ethylene market showed strength, with CFR Northeast Asia prices climbing USD 10/mt to USD 835–845/mt. The US contract price for July 2025 settled earlier at 32.25 cents/lb, representing a gain of 1.50 cents from June, though spot levels have since diverged sharply to the downside.
The continued erosion in US spot ethylene prices underscores the fragile balance between supply and demand in a market awash with inventory and facing sluggish downstream pull, even as operational hiccups fail to provide meaningful support.
