Linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) prices across Asia trended downward this week, weighed by a mix of fragile demand, oversupply, and macroeconomic headwinds. Industry participants pointed to the Russia–Ukraine conflict and persistent U.S. sanctions on major oil-producing countries as key global factors driving crude oil volatility, adding unpredictability to energy and petrochemical markets.
In Far East Asia, CFR assessments fell to USD 850–890/mt, a decline of USD 10/mt week on week. Market activity in China reflected a deadlock between buyers and sellers, with a Saudi producer offering film-grade LLDPE at USD 850/mt and an Indian producer quoting at USD 870/mt, both for September shipment. Middle Eastern suppliers maintained offers in the USD 850–890/mt range, supported by pending Q4 turnarounds. Yet, buyers showed little interest, preferring cheaper U.S. cargoes that kept transaction levels anchored at the lower end of the range.
The softness was even more pronounced in Southeast Asia, where prices slipped to USD 910–970/mt CFR, down by USD 20/mt. Producers from the Middle East, China, South Korea, and Indonesia tabled offers in this range, but muted demand and abundant supply pressured sentiment. Traders highlighted a decline in Indonesian pricing and warned that LLDPE and HDPE values could converge in the coming weeks. In Vietnam, stability prevailed for now, but the imminent restart of Longson Petrochemical’s domestic plant could inject more supply, straining imports. The strengthening U.S. dollar has further dampened interest in dollar-denominated imports, with buyers shifting preference to local sources to mitigate foreign exchange risks.
In India, CFR values eased to USD 910–940/mt, down USD 10/mt from the prior week. Although bids were heard below USD 900/mt, they could not be confirmed. The Indian market was particularly affected by new U.S. tariffs, which lifted duties on specific Indian products to 50%, alongside a weakening rupee that drove up import costs. Seasonal monsoon rains disrupted logistics, adding further strain to a market already grappling with weak downstream demand. Some optimism is pinned on the festive season in September and October, which may stimulate restocking, but players remain cautious given abundant supply and the added burden of currency-driven cost pressures.
Pakistan faced one of the steepest challenges, with CFR levels at USD 980–1010/mt, down USD 10/mt. Heavy rains and widespread flooding disrupted transport from Karachi port to manufacturing hubs, nearly halting spot trade. Meanwhile, a surge in competitively priced Iranian imports compounded oversupply, leaving inventories bloated. Market participants warned that without an improvement in weather and logistics, the bearish tone could persist into October.
Sri Lanka and Bangladesh recorded more stable pricing, though both markets leaned slightly softer. CFR levels in Sri Lanka held at USD 960–1000/mt, while Bangladesh registered USD 950–980/mt, down USD 10/mt week on week. Offers from Chinese, Middle Eastern, and Saudi suppliers dominated, but activity was muted as buyers delayed purchases in anticipation of fresh September offers. Spot trading volumes were limited, reflecting the cautious stance of regional converters.
Feedstock dynamics offered little support, with ethylene prices holding steady at USD 835–845/mt CFR NE Asia and edging slightly higher by USD 5/mt to USD 830–840/mt CFR SE Asia. On the supply side, plant news added to the shifting landscape. Sinopec Maoming Petrochemical shut its 220,000 mt/year LLDPE unit in Guangdong for maintenance on August 25, while Sinopec Guangzhou Petrochemical is expected to idle another 220,000 mt/year unit in the fourth quarter, though details remain unconfirmed.
Overall, Asia’s LLDPE market remains under pressure. Ample spot availability, subdued purchasing interest, and regional macroeconomic stress are limiting any prospects of price recovery in the near term. While seasonal demand may offer some support in India and parts of Southeast Asia, most market watchers expect trading to remain cautious, with prices moving in a narrow, slightly bearish range until clearer signals of demand recovery emerge.
