Crude oil prices managed a modest rebound on Friday, clawing back part of the previous day’s sharp losses as renewed fears over Russian supply disruptions met headwinds from rising global output and tepid demand in the United States.
Benchmark Brent crude futures for near-month delivery on the Intercontinental Exchange settled up 0.93 percent, or 62 cents, at US $66.99 a barrel, compared with Thursday’s close of US $66.37. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.51 percent, or 32 cents, to US $62.69 a barrel. The slight gains followed Thursday’s drop of roughly 2 percent for both contracts, underscoring a market pulled in opposite directions.
Prices found support after Ukrainian drone attacks again targeted Russian energy infrastructure, including a dramatic strike on the Baltic Sea oil port of Primorsk that set vessels ablaze and temporarily halted loadings at the country’s largest western terminal. Primorsk, capable of handling about 1 million barrels of crude a day and roughly 300,000 barrels of diesel, is a key outlet for Russia’s flagship Urals grade. Fresh attacks raised the specter of tighter Russian exports just as the European Union and United States contemplate new sanctions on Moscow and its trading partners.
Yet the bullish impulse was tempered by persistent oversupply concerns. The International Energy Agency’s September Oil Market Report projected global oil demand growth of 740,000 barrels per day in 2025, only slightly higher than last month’s estimate, while world oil supply in August climbed to a record 106.9 million barrels per day as OPEC+ continued to unwind cuts. The agency now expects output to rise to 105.8 million barrels per day this year and 107.9 million barrels by 2026, with non-OPEC+ producers accounting for the bulk of the increase.
Adding further pressure, OPEC+ members agreed on September 7 to raise production by 137,000 barrels per day beginning in October, continuing the gradual restoration of 2.2 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts announced in 2023. The group reaffirmed its willingness to pause or reverse adjustments if market conditions weaken, but for now the steady uptick in supply is weighing on sentiment.
Across the Atlantic, signs of a slowing U.S. economy deepened concerns about demand. The Energy Information Administration highlighted softening consumption following the end of the summer driving season. Inflation readings came in slightly hotter than expected, but with tariffs creating only a one-off bump and wage pressures easing as unemployment rises, analysts anticipate a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut next week, another signal of a cooling economy and potentially weaker energy demand.
Against this backdrop, traders expect crude prices to remain range-bound. Ongoing geopolitical flashpoints, from Ukraine’s drone campaign to prospective Western sanctions on Russia and Iran, are providing intermittent support, but the dominant forces of swelling global supply and faltering U.S. demand continue to cap any sustained rally.
