Low-density polyethylene (LDPE) prices across Asia eased further this week amid a mix of tepid downstream demand, shrinking arbitrage margins, and cautious buyer behavior. An industry source in Asia, speaking under anonymity, blamed escalated geopolitical tension, particularly the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, for fueling supply disruption fears. At the same time, markets are clinging to hopes of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, which have slightly bolstered demand expectations. Together, these forces have pushed crude oil and feedstock costs higher, but LDPE prices still came under downward pressure in many regions.
In Far East Asia, LDPE film‐grade prices dropped by about USD 10/mt, with CFR levels now assessed at USD 1020-1060/mt, as compared to last week. In China, Middle Eastern producers are offering film grades for October shipments in the same range, though many buyers are staying on the sidelines as domestic LDPE in yuan weakens and the import arbitrage thins. With local supply becoming more cost-competitive, converters are increasingly choosing domestic materials over imported LDPE, further strangling spot import demand. Sellers have largely kept their asks within existing ranges, seeing little justification to firm up prices when buyer participation remains minimal.
In Southeast Asia, the slide continued: LDPE film grades were assessed at USD 1060-1110/mt CFR, down USD (-10/mt) from the prior week, a decline largely driven by Vietnamese purchases of U.S.-origin cargoes seen at lower landed cost, and general reluctance among buyers to commit ahead of anticipated further drops. Other markets in the region registered sparse spot trading and few fresh offers, with U.S. shipments acting as a competitive benchmark suppressing the willingness of local suppliers to push prices upward.
India’s LDPE film grades held in the USD 1100-1130/mt CFR band, effectively unchanged for the week, despite a few indications of offers around USD 1090/mt. The broader Indian demand picture remains weak, with fat inventories at converter sites, recent rupee depreciation increasing import cost burdens, and monsoon-related disruptions curbing downstream industrial output. Incentives by domestic producers failed to spur much activity, as buyers prioritized necessity over restocking.
In Pakistan, pricing was largely stable at USD 1080-1100/mt CFR, unchanged week-on-week, amid muted demand and limited spot‐supply moves. Bangladesh saw LDPE prices fall by USD 20/mt to USD 1130-1160/mt CFR, while Sri Lanka dropped around USD 10/mt to USD 1140-1170/mt CFR, with both markets seeing very little bid urgency. Buyers are prioritizing new imports rather than locking in current offers, anticipating firmer discounts in the near term.
On the feedstock side, ethylene CFR North East Asia held steady at USD 835-845/mt, while in Southeast Asia prices nudged up by USD 10/mt. A planned maintenance turnaround at PetroChina Daqing’s No.2 LDPE unit (200,000 mt/year) scheduled for mid-September is expected to tighten supply temporarily, but whether that will offset broader softness remains to be seen.
Looking ahead, the LDPE market in Asia is expected to remain subdued in the short term unless two key dynamics shift: either a sharp, positive swing in demand, especially in packaging or related sectors, or tighter availability of imports that could spark a scramble for prompt shipments. Otherwise, prices are likely to stay under pressure or drift sideways until after the upcoming holidays and seasonal demand cycles.
